AGP Executive Report

Prices & Spending: U.S. retail sales rose 0.8% in September, helped by higher gas-station spending, even as inflation accelerated to 3.7% and squeezed household budgets. Holiday Outlook: The National Retail Federation forecasts $1.01 trillion in November and December sales, up 4.2% year over year—but higher prices are expected to drive much of the increase, while many shoppers plan to seek deals. Consumer Tech: Google is betting on a middle ground between fitness band and full smartwatch with its $179.99 Fitbit Edge, featuring a screen, health tracking, GPS and phone alerts. Personal Care: A newly FDA-approved sunscreen ingredient has reached U.S. shelves, adding a fresh option for consumers.

Prices and Budgets: U.S. inflation rose to 3.7% in September, with gasoline up 9.1% in a month. More than 40% of Americans say they struggle to afford basic necessities, while retailers report mixed sales as shoppers take on more debt. Food Safety: Consumer Reports is pressing the FDA over its response to a Cyclospora outbreak linked to lettuce that sickened nearly 13,000 people and killed two. New on Shelves: A newly FDA-approved sunscreen ingredient has reached U.S. stores, marking the first new sunscreen type in 25 years. Drug Costs: Consumers who bought certain generic drugs from 2009 to 2019 may qualify for a share of $96.5 million in settlements over alleged price-fixing.

Prices: U.S. inflation accelerated to 3.7% in September, with gasoline up 9.1% for the month and accounting for more than half of the CPI increase. Higher fuel costs are adding pressure to household budgets. Retail Outlook: Moody’s upgraded its retail and apparel outlook to stable, citing easing tariff costs, but warned that spending is increasingly split: higher-income shoppers are driving growth while value-focused households face mounting costs. Holiday Shopping: More shoppers are starting Black Friday research in October, comparing prices weeks before the event. Shopping Trends: New consumer research flags health and beauty, apparel, and electronics as categories where AI could reshape product discovery and buying. Product Watch: Upcoming federal hemp restrictions could push some CBD and THC products off U.S. shelves by December. Food Safety: U.S. consumer trust in food safety has fallen to a record low, according to a new report.

Retail & Brands: Target’s Cat & Jack children’s clothing line now generates $3 billion in annual sales, while beauty brand Medicube reported U.S. sales up about 85% during Amazon’s Prime Big Deal Days. Household Costs: Higher fuel prices are adding to inflation pressure: gasoline rose 7.1% in September, and economists expect overall prices to climb. Consumer Strain: Serious auto-loan delinquencies hit a record, while nearly 13% of credit card balances are seriously past due, as inflation erodes household purchasing power. Shopping Trends: U.S. retail sales rose for a 12th straight month in September, though middle-income confidence is under pressure from pump prices. Product Trust: U.S. consumer trust in food safety has fallen to a record low, and Consumer Reports warns that “regenerative” labels can mislead shoppers.

Prices & Spending: Consumer confidence slipped, with middle-income households hit hardest as fuel costs strain budgets; diesel futures jumped 5% Tuesday. A consumer-goods price index showed prices up 2.1% year over year, while holiday spending is expected to dip as shoppers prioritize value. Retail: Sales rose for a 12th straight month, but budget-conscious diners are challenging chains such as Domino’s, whose U.S. same-store sales grew just 0.3% in the third quarter. Product Safety: Indiana’s attorney general urged residents to check for more than 50 recalled products, including bed rails linked to entrapment and asphyxiation risks. Trust & Claims: U.S. trust in food safety has fallen to a record low, while a skincare report found widespread gaps in verifiable product claims; Consumer Reports also warned that “regenerative” labels can mislead shoppers. Everyday Costs: A study says tariffs have raised prices on everyday goods, adding to pressure on households already focused on affordability.

Food Safety: The FDA recalled Starfish Seafood Trio cold-smoked salmon, halibut and trout over possible listeria contamination. The product was distributed in six states; no illnesses have been reported. New on Shelves: Valentina Mayo, made with the Mexican hot sauce, is rolling out to 287 Walmart stores across 11 states during October. Beauty Risks: A study found nearly 42,500 people went to U.S. emergency rooms with eye injuries linked to cosmetics and personal-care products from 2005 to 2024; children were especially vulnerable to chemical burns. Shopping and Prices: U.S. retail sales rose for a 12th straight month in September, but holiday spending is expected to fall as shoppers seek value. A recent study also found tariffs have raised prices on everyday goods. Grocery Confidence: Confidence in food safety has fallen to a record low, amid ongoing E. coli and salmonella investigations.

Retail Disruption: A cyber incident at Ahold Delhaize forced Giant Food’s website offline, though the chain says stores remain open. The parent also owns Food Lion, Stop & Shop and Hannaford. Prices and Tariffs: A New York Fed report found Trump’s tariffs lifted U.S. goods prices 2.9% through February, with clothing, coffee and tea, and furniture among the hardest-hit categories. High fuel costs add pressure, while analysts warn the proposed Russian diesel imports may not bring prices down quickly. Holiday Budgets: U.S. shoppers are expected to cut holiday spending by 5.5%, with value top of mind as consumer confidence weakens. Food Safety: The FDA announced a recall of Starfish Seafood Trio smoked salmon, halibut and trout in six states over possible listeria contamination; no illnesses have been reported. Separately, a Florida plant inspection found cockroaches on cheese equipment and flies on ready-to-eat products.

Food Safety: U.S. confidence in grocery safety has fallen to a record-low 65% amid E. coli and salmonella investigations. Separately, FDA inspectors found cockroaches on cheese equipment and flies on ready-to-eat products at a Florida plant. Auto Market: GM’s U.S. sales fell 6.3% through September, while Toyota’s rose 0.6%, narrowing their gap to fewer than 130,000 vehicles. Chevrolet plans spring updates to its budget-friendly Trax and Trailblazer. Price Pressures: Diesel averaged $6.28 a gallon, about 70% above a year earlier, adding to cost worries. A poll found most Americans believe consumers bear the cost of tariffs. Retail Strategy: 7-Eleven faces a tougher U.S. shopping environment as customers pull back; retailers from BJ’s to Lululemon are trimming product ranges. Grocery Brands: Kroger ranked sixth globally in a study of grocery audio branding—the only U.S. grocer in the top 10.

Storm Disruptions: Hurricane Isaias has killed at least four people and left more than 500,000 customers without power across the Southeast, disrupting homes and businesses. Product Safety: Parents should check recalled Amazon bath seats and dressers, plus other child-focused products flagged by the CPSC. The FDA also linked contaminated broccoli sprouting seeds to a 32-person Salmonella outbreak, found undeclared alcohols in one lot of infant gripe water, and detected the stimulant DMAA in three Rapture Preworkout flavors. Fuel Costs: Diesel remains about 71% above year-ago levels, raising costs for farms, trucking and groceries. Analysts say Trump’s Russian diesel deal may arrive too late to offer meaningful relief. Household Finances: Fed data show modest wealth gains alongside rising payment stress, with the youngest families losing ground. Retail: 7-Eleven says shoppers are pulling back as consumers remain squeezed by higher costs.

Amazon Refunds: Eligible Prime customers may receive up to $200 automatically under Amazon’s FTC settlement. Payments arrive by PayPal, Venmo or check and expire 60 days after issue. Food Safety: U.S. confidence in food safety has hit a record low amid renewed scrutiny of outbreaks. Separately, six shipments of frozen Korean oysters were destroyed after norovirus was detected, and Nature’s Own Hawaiian bread was recalled in Texas and four other states over an undeclared ingredient. Prices and Budgets: A New York Fed study estimates tariffs raised consumer-goods prices by 2.9 percentage points; consumer sentiment fell for a third straight month, while more than half of U.S. consumers routinely end the month short of funds. Retail Shifts: Sam’s Club is letting 200,000 members weigh in on what it sells, as retailers including BJ’s and Lululemon trim product assortments.

Retail Operations: Walmart opened its fifth next-generation fulfillment center, even as reports detail breakdowns, oversized boxes and other hurdles with warehouse robots. Automation costs more to maintain and power, complicating the retailer’s efficiency push. Prices & Supply Chains: New York Fed researchers estimate tariffs added 2.9 percentage points to consumer-goods inflation by February. Diesel costs are also squeezing freight: prices remain far above a year ago, and analysts doubt a planned Russian supply deal will bring shoppers meaningful relief. Consumer Mood: U.S. sentiment fell for a third straight month in October, with current conditions hitting a record low amid inflation worries. Brands & Safety: PepsiCo is facing weak U.S. sales as it pursues a North American turnaround. Separately, recalls affect Nature’s Own Hawaiian Bread in five states over an undeclared ingredient and more than 120,000 cases of Gatorade.

Consumer Costs: U.S. sentiment fell for a third straight month to 46.3, with current conditions at a record low. A New York Fed study estimates tariffs added 2.9 percentage points to consumer-goods prices. Food & Safety: Gatorade recalled more than 120,000 cases nationwide, while bread products were recalled in five states over an undeclared allergen. Consumer Reports also found most prenatal vitamins it tested were inaccurately labeled. Retail Watch: Online spending during Amazon’s Prime Big Deal Days neared $10 billion in the U.S., even as households plan to trim holiday budgets 5.5%. Walmart is adding one-hour express pickup for holiday shoppers; Levi’s reported 10% e-commerce growth. Brands & Supply: PepsiCo’s U.S. sales remain weak as it pursues cost cuts and logistics changes. Hurricane Isaias shut in nearly 63% of Gulf oil output, adding pressure to fuel costs already weighing on farmers, truckers and restaurant operators.

Consumer Mood: U.S. consumer sentiment fell to 46.3 in October, its lowest level since May, as high prices and borrowing costs weighed on households’ plans for big purchases. Shopping & Holiday Budgets: Prime Big Deal Days generated $9.86 billion in U.S. online sales, with mobile accounting for 52%; meanwhile, surveys point to selective holiday spending, and households expect to trim budgets by 5.5%. Food & Beverage: PepsiCo plans cost cuts as North American sales weaken and says it will raise prices; Gatorade also recalled more than 120,000 cases across the U.S. Pricing & Costs: A lawsuit alleges McDonald’s pricing tool helped coordinate higher menu prices, a claim the company denies. Separately, a New York Fed analysis estimates tariffs added 2.9 percentage points to U.S. consumer-goods prices. Retail Pulse: Nationwide retail sales rose just over 4% in September, even as confidence slipped.

Food Safety: Flowers Foods recalled select Nature’s Own Hawaiian breads in five states because milk was missing from ingredient labels, posing a risk to people with milk allergies. Holiday Shopping: ICSC forecasts holiday sales will rise 4.3%–4.9% to more than $1.7 trillion; 88% of surveyed adults plan to shop, though consumers are carefully weighing value. Grocery Competition: Sen. Elizabeth Warren urged federal regulators to scrutinize proposed deals involving Kroger and Giant Eagle, Sysco and Jetro Restaurant Depot, and McCormick’s purchase of Unilever’s food business, warning consolidation could limit competition. Online Retail: Amazon’s October Prime Big Deal Days generated $9.86 billion in U.S. online spending, Adobe reported. Price Pressures: PepsiCo plans price increases after a weak North American quarter, as more than half of U.S. consumers say they routinely run short of money before month’s end. Store Closures: Pool-supplies retailer Leslie’s is closing 76 stores nationwide amid bankruptcy restructuring.

Prices & Grocery: PepsiCo plans price hikes and cost cuts after weak North American results, while NielsenIQ says shoppers’ changing habits are pushing grocers toward smaller packages. Food Safety: A popular baby gas-relief product was recalled over undeclared alcohol; a separate massive doughnut recall received the FDA’s highest-risk warning. Restaurant Pricing: McDonald’s faces a class-action lawsuit alleging its AI pricing tool raises menu prices; the company denies using AI to set customer prices. New Products: Yucatan and Cabo Fresh are rolling out protein guacamole at major U.S. grocers, with distribution expected to reach nearly 8,000 stores by year-end. Retail Shake-up: Pool-supply chain Leslie’s filed for Chapter 11 and is closing 76 stores nationwide as it seeks to restructure debt. Consumer Costs: Tariffs are raising prices on wheelchairs, adding pressure for shoppers already concerned about household expenses.

Consumer Alerts: USDA warned that Grace chicken Vienna sausages imported illegally from Jamaica reached stores in five states; shoppers should check cans for the Jamaican inspection mark. A separate frozen-organic-berry recall has expanded to more Walmart and Trader Joe’s products, while a major doughnut recall received the FDA’s highest-risk warning. Retail & Pricing: The FTC is reportedly preparing action over Booking.com ads that may send hotel shoppers to a third-party site charging extra fees. McDonald’s faces lawsuits alleging its AI pricing tool promotes higher menu prices, as deals have yet to solve the chain’s U.S. traffic slump. Shopping Trends: NielsenIQ says changing grocery habits are driving demand for smaller packages. Amazon’s Prime Big Deal Days are testing consumer demand, and Walmart is linking Spotify audio ads to purchases to help brands measure sales.