Congo’s peace is unlikely if underlying issues are not discussed
Beginning in December 2024, M23 forces took control of Goma and Bukavu, the key administrative centers of North and South Kivu provinces. This takeover has further destabilized a region long troubled by armed groups vying over mineral-rich territories. The M23, among hundreds of active armed factions in eastern Congo, claims to represent and protect the interests of the Tutsi minority population.
Prime Minister Judith Suminwa Tuluka reported that over 7,000 lives have been lost this year due to the conflict. Meanwhile, estimates from the United Nations indicate that more than 7.8 million people have been uprooted from their homes.
Efforts to achieve peace gained traction in March when the Congolese President Felix Tshisekedi and Rwandan President Paul Kagame consented to a ceasefire agreement in Doha, facilitated by the Emir of Qatar. In the following month, foreign ministers from both nations signed a declaration in Washington, mediated by the US. This agreement emphasized mutual respect for sovereignty, the development of a formal peace accord, and pledged cooperation with the United States concerning vital mineral supply chains.
However, experts caution that securing peace through a mineral-related agreement alone is improbable without tackling the deeper socioeconomic and political challenges.
Rose Mumanya, a political risk expert based in Kenya, highlighted persistent issues such as the exclusion of the Tutsi community in Congo, alleged interference from neighboring Rwanda, and the suspected connections between the M23 and Kigali.
Nevertheless, Mumanya noted that the mineral deal’s principal purpose might be to “increase the incentive for the US to get involved in the conflict as a mediator.”
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